← Explore · Market 1087309

Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?

12.5% implied · bid 11.4¢ · ask 13.6¢

The market prices this at 11.4%, up 2.7pt over 24h, on a 2.2¢ spread.

Implied probability11.4%

Bid / ask / mid11.4¢ / 13.6¢ / 12.5¢

Spread2.2¢ (17.6%)

Change 24h+2.75pt

Change 7d+0.25pt

Thin (score 39/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 28% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$27

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$151 / $159

Imbalance28% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score39.2 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.36

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.31pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 0d 0h.

Time to resolve0d 0h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%