← Explore · Market 1090496
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
17.5% implied · bid 17.0¢ · ask 18.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 18.0¢ / 17.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.7%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d+3.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,218
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,154 / $6,152
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.17
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.69pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%