← Explore · Market 1107582
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
16.5% implied · bid 16.0¢ · ask 17.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 16.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid16.0¢ / 17.0¢ / 16.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.1%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 57/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 11% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$12,770
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$16,474 / $8,242
Imbalance11% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score57.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.99
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.20pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 129d 3h.
Time to resolve129d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%