← Explore · Market 1170144
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
5.5% implied · bid 5.0¢ · ask 6.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid5.0¢ / 6.0¢ / 5.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (18.2%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,580
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,194 / $3,592
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score47.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 39913383103501.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean39913383103501.07
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.00pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%