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Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?

3.6% implied · bid 3.5¢ · ask 3.7¢

The market prices this at 3.9%, down 4.9pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.

Implied probability3.9%

Bid / ask / mid3.5¢ / 3.7¢ / 3.6¢

Spread0.2¢ (5.6%)

Change 24h-4.90pt

Change 7d-6.90pt

Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$7,334

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$185 / $105

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score49.1 / 100

RSI 10 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.57

RSI (14, hourly)9.8

Realized vol 7d0.49pt

Change 1h+0.10pt

Resolves in 129d 3h.

Time to resolve129d 3h

Resolution sourcemanual-review

Sum of outcomes100.0%