← Explore · Market 1301533
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
6.5% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 7.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability7.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$23,342
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$111 / $159
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.81
RSI (14, hourly)42.9
Realized vol 7d0.24pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%