← Explore · Market 1364103
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
77.5% implied · bid 77.0¢ · ask 78.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 77.0%, down 8.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability77.0%
Bid / ask / mid77.0¢ / 78.0¢ / 77.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.3%)
Change 24h-8.00pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6,569
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,438 / $3,328
Imbalance18% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.78
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.75pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 71d 21h.
Time to resolve71d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%