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← Explore · Market 1364105

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

20.0% implied · bid 19.0¢ · ask 21.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 20.0%, up 4.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability20.0%
Bid / ask / mid19.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 20.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (10.0%)
Change 24h+4.50pt
Change 7d-2.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$4,548
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,390 / $494
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.9 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.17
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.48pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 71d 21h.

Time to resolve71d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth