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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

6.8% implied · bid 6.7¢ · ask 6.8¢

The market prices this at 6.7%, up 1.4pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability6.7%

Bid / ask / mid6.7¢ / 6.8¢ / 6.8¢

Spread0.1¢ (1.5%)

Change 24h+1.40pt

Change 7d-0.60pt

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$5,987

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,313 / $289

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score50.3 / 100

RSI 93 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.15

RSI (14, hourly)92.9

Realized vol 7d0.43pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 39d 22h.

Time to resolve39d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%