← Explore · Market 1365854
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
9.4% implied · bid 9.0¢ · ask 9.9¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 9.7%, up 1.4pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability9.7%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 9.9¢ / 9.4¢
Spread0.9¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h+1.45pt
Change 7d+6.80pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,390
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$420 / $628
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 76 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.98
RSI (14, hourly)75.9
Realized vol 7d0.35pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 21h.
Time to resolve85d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%