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Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

1.2% implied · bid 0.8¢ · ask 1.6¢

The market prices this at 0.8%, up 0.6pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.

Implied probability0.8%

Bid / ask / mid0.8¢ / 1.6¢ / 1.2¢

Spread0.8¢ (66.7%)

Change 24h+0.55pt

Change 7d+0.30pt

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$926

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,193 / $102

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score47.1 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.94

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.03pt

Change 1h+0.10pt

Resolves in 85d 21h.

Time to resolve85d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%