← Explore · Market 1365860
Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
7.1% implied · bid 6.3¢ · ask 8.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.0%, down 1.9pt over 24h, on a 1.7¢ spread.
Implied probability7.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.3¢ / 8.0¢ / 7.1¢
Spread1.7¢ (23.8%)
Change 24h-1.90pt
Change 7d-3.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,067
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$139 / $224
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 27 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-4.12
RSI (14, hourly)27.2
Realized vol 7d0.28pt
Change 1h+0.65pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 21h.
Time to resolve85d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%