← Explore · Market 1365861

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

88.5% implied · bid 88.0¢ · ask 89.0¢

The market prices this at 89.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability89.0%

Bid / ask / mid88.0¢ / 89.0¢ / 88.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)

Change 24h+2.00pt

Change 7d+2.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 38% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$9,721

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$6,654 / $6,844

Imbalance38% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score51.7 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.28

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.51pt

Change 1h+3.00pt

Resolves in 39d 22h.

Time to resolve39d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%