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Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

6.5% implied · bid 5.4¢ · ask 7.6¢

The market prices this at 5.5%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.2¢ spread.

Implied probability5.5%

Bid / ask / mid5.4¢ / 7.6¢ / 6.5¢

Spread2.2¢ (33.8%)

Change 24h-0.50pt

Change 7d-1.90pt

Thin (score 39/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$252 / $249

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score39.3 / 100

RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.61

RSI (14, hourly)47.1

Realized vol 7d0.39pt

Change 1h-0.20pt

Resolves in 85d 21h.

Time to resolve85d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%