← Explore · Market 1365896
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
16.5% implied · bid 16.0¢ · ask 17.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.0%, up 7.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability17.0%
Bid / ask / mid16.0¢ / 17.0¢ / 16.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.1%)
Change 24h+7.50pt
Change 7d+0.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,429
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$209 / $228
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 83 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.11
RSI (14, hourly)83.3
Realized vol 7d0.68pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 21h.
Time to resolve85d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%