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Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

39.5% implied · bid 39.0¢ · ask 40.0¢

The market prices this at 39.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability39.0%

Bid / ask / mid39.0¢ / 40.0¢ / 39.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (2.5%)

Change 24h-2.00pt

Change 7d+0.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$530

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,371 / $810

Imbalance4% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score46.1 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.58

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.82pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 39d 22h.

Time to resolve39d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%