← Explore · Market 1388704
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
29.0% implied · bid 28.0¢ · ask 30.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 28.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability28.0%
Bid / ask / mid28.0¢ / 30.0¢ / 29.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (6.9%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d-1.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,437
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8,126 / $4,948
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.78
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.59pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%