← Explore · Market 1397270
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
34.5% implied · bid 34.0¢ · ask 35.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 34.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability34.0%
Bid / ask / mid34.0¢ / 35.0¢ / 34.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.9%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d-2.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 15% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$7,511
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,811 / $660
Imbalance15% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score46.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.36
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.34pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 129d 3h.
Time to resolve129d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%