← Explore · Market 1397270
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
61.0% implied · bid 60.0¢ · ask 62.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 60.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability60.0%
Bid / ask / mid60.0¢ / 62.0¢ / 61.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (3.3%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-1.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 48% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$676
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,426 / $3,367
Imbalance48% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.01
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d0.76pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%