← Explore · Market 1397281

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

53.0% implied · bid 52.0¢ · ask 54.0¢

The market prices this at 53.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability53.0%

Bid / ask / mid52.0¢ / 54.0¢ / 53.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (3.8%)

Change 24h+2.50pt

Change 7d+3.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 54/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 44% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$14,693

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,159 / $23,900

Imbalance44% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score54.0 / 100

RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.89

RSI (14, hourly)66.7

Realized vol 7d0.91pt

Change 1h+0.50pt

Resolves in 129d 3h.

Time to resolve129d 3h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%