← Explore · Market 1469734

Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?

2.5% implied · bid 2.3¢ · ask 2.7¢

The market prices this at 2.3%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.

Implied probability2.3%

Bid / ask / mid2.3¢ / 2.7¢ / 2.5¢

Spread0.4¢ (16.0%)

Change 24h-0.10pt

Change 7d-0.05pt

Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,913

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,610 / $164

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score49.4 / 100

RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.11

RSI (14, hourly)33.3

Realized vol 7d0.06pt

Change 1h-0.05pt

Resolves in 173d 22h.

Time to resolve173d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%