← Explore · Market 1469734

Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?

4.0% implied · bid 4.0¢ · ask 4.1¢

The market prices this at 4.0%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability4.0%

Bid / ask / mid4.0¢ / 4.1¢ / 4.0¢

Spread0.1¢ (2.5%)

Change 24h+0.10pt

Change 7d-0.15pt

Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$291

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,577 / $343

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score51.0 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.44

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.04pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 127d 22h.

Time to resolve127d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%