← Explore · Market 1469739

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

5.1% implied · bid 4.7¢ · ask 5.5¢

The market prices this at 4.5%, up 1.7pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.

Implied probability4.5%

Bid / ask / mid4.7¢ / 5.5¢ / 5.1¢

Spread0.8¢ (15.7%)

Change 24h+1.70pt

Change 7d+1.85pt

Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$23,781

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,760 / $1,411

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score47.6 / 100

RSI 64 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.26

RSI (14, hourly)63.9

Realized vol 7d0.22pt

Change 1h-0.15pt

Resolves in 173d 22h.

Time to resolve173d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%