← Explore · Market 1469739
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2.6% implied · bid 2.5¢ · ask 2.8¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.5%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability2.5%
Bid / ask / mid2.5¢ / 2.8¢ / 2.6¢
Spread0.3¢ (11.3%)
Change 24h-0.05pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$573 / $1,942
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.21
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d0.06pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 127d 22h.
Time to resolve127d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%