← Explore · Market 1469758

Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

1.7% implied · bid 1.6¢ · ask 1.7¢

The market prices this at 1.8%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability1.8%

Bid / ask / mid1.6¢ / 1.7¢ / 1.7¢

Spread0.1¢ (6.1%)

Change 24h-0.30pt

Change 7d-0.80pt

Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$100

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,130 / $185

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score50.7 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.14

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.03pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 127d 22h.

Time to resolve127d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%