← Explore · Market 1469766
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2.9% implied · bid 2.6¢ · ask 3.3¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.7%, down 0.6pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.
Implied probability2.7%
Bid / ask / mid2.6¢ / 3.3¢ / 2.9¢
Spread0.7¢ (23.7%)
Change 24h-0.55pt
Change 7d+0.20pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,711
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,535 / $555
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 21 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.98
RSI (14, hourly)21.4
Realized vol 7d0.11pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 22h.
Time to resolve173d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%