← Explore · Market 1535973

Iran leadership change by December 31?

15.5% implied · bid 15.0¢ · ask 16.0¢

The market prices this at 15.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability15.0%

Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (6.5%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d-1.00pt

Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 43% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,300

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$111,200 / $8,404

Imbalance43% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score95.0 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.77

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.08pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 129d 3h.

Time to resolve129d 3h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%