← Explore · Market 1535973
Iran leadership change by December 31?
20.5% implied · bid 20.0¢ · ask 21.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid20.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 20.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.9%)
Change 24h+4.00pt
Change 7d+5.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,696
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,408 / $1,496
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score48.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.52
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.37pt
Change 1h+3.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%