← Explore · Market 1633611

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

11.5% implied · bid 11.0¢ · ask 12.0¢

The market prices this at 11.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability11.0%

Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 11.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (8.7%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d-1.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 59/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$54,021

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$21,435 / $7,439

Imbalance16% bid

Large trades (>$1k)2

Liquidity score59.4 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.96

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.16pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 492d 22h.

Time to resolve492d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%