← Explore · Market 1646000
Will Donald Trump visit Ireland in 2026?
85.0% implied · bid 82.0¢ · ask 88.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 89.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability89.0%
Bid / ask / mid82.0¢ / 88.0¢ / 85.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (7.1%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+29.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 65% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$291
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$67 / $107
Imbalance65% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 44 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.34
RSI (14, hourly)44.4
Realized vol 7d2.62pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%