← Explore · Market 1796338
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
1.8% implied · bid 1.4¢ · ask 2.2¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.2%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability1.2%
Bid / ask / mid1.4¢ / 2.2¢ / 1.8¢
Spread0.8¢ (44.4%)
Change 24h-0.05pt
Change 7d-0.20pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$814
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$162 / $80
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 85 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.29
RSI (14, hourly)84.6
Realized vol 7d0.06pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 37d 2h.
Time to resolve37d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%