← Explore · Market 1796381
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
6.0% implied · bid 5.9¢ · ask 6.2¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid5.9¢ / 6.2¢ / 6.0¢
Spread0.3¢ (5.0%)
Change 24h-0.10pt
Change 7d+0.15pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$36,607
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$917 / $238
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.36
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.06pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 129d 3h.
Time to resolve129d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%