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← Explore · Market 1831352

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

29.5% implied · bid 27.0¢ · ask 32.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 27.0%, up 3.5pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.

Implied probability27.0%
Bid / ask / mid27.0¢ / 32.0¢ / 29.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (16.9%)
Change 24h+3.50pt
Change 7d+16.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,117
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$147 / $597
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.4 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 73 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.81
RSI (14, hourly)72.7
Realized vol 7d1.53pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 81d 21h.

Time to resolve81d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth