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← Explore · Market 1831353

Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

14.5% implied · bid 13.0¢ · ask 16.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 15.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.

Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 14.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (20.7%)
Change 24h+4.00pt
Change 7d+5.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,412
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$75 / $115
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 63 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.1σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean3.09
RSI (14, hourly)62.9
Realized vol 7d1.09pt
Change 1h+0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 81d 21h.

Time to resolve81d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth