← Explore · Market 1831354
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
11.5% implied · bid 10.0¢ · ask 13.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 13.0¢ / 11.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (26.1%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$52
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$82 / $139
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.30
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d0.19pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 81d 21h.
Time to resolve81d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%