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← Explore · Market 1831673

Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

10.1% implied · bid 9.3¢ · ask 10.9¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 10.0%, up 2.6pt over 24h, on a 1.6¢ spread.

Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.3¢ / 10.9¢ / 10.1¢
Spread1.6¢ (15.8%)
Change 24h+2.55pt
Change 7d-0.90pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$340
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$77 / $59
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 75 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.21
RSI (14, hourly)74.7
Realized vol 7d0.45pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 173d 21h.

Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth