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← Explore · Market 1831761

Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

15.4% implied · bid 14.8¢ · ask 16.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 14.8%, up 0.6pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.

Implied probability14.8%
Bid / ask / mid14.8¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.4¢
Spread1.2¢ (7.8%)
Change 24h+0.60pt
Change 7d+5.20pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$798
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$160 / $256
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.2 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.53
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.70pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 173d 21h.

Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth