← Explore · Market 1861376
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?
95.2% implied · bid 93.4¢ · ask 97.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 94.3%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 3.6¢ spread.
Implied probability94.3%
Bid / ask / mid93.4¢ / 97.0¢ / 95.2¢
Spread3.6¢ (3.8%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d-0.05pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 80% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$298
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,440 / $5,535
Imbalance80% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score36.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 12 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-4.50
RSI (14, hourly)11.7
Realized vol 7d0.20pt
Change 1h-0.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 494d 3h.
Time to resolve494d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%