← Explore · Market 1922860
Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?
2.3% implied · bid 1.7¢ · ask 2.9¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.7%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.
Implied probability1.7%
Bid / ask / mid1.7¢ / 2.9¢ / 2.3¢
Spread1.2¢ (52.2%)
Change 24h-0.15pt
Change 7d-0.60pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$157
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$76 / $185
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.21
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.10pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 174d 21h.
Time to resolve174d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%