← Explore · Market 1927735

Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

4.8% implied · bid 4.7¢ · ask 4.8¢

The market prices this at 4.7%, up 1.9pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability4.7%

Bid / ask / mid4.7¢ / 4.8¢ / 4.8¢

Spread0.1¢ (2.1%)

Change 24h+1.90pt

Change 7d+1.10pt

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$3,830

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$643 / $38

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score49.8 / 100

RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.85

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d1.60pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 173d 21h.

Time to resolve173d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%