← Explore · Market 2034729

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

1.4% implied · bid 1.3¢ · ask 1.5¢

The market prices this at 1.3%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.

Implied probability1.3%

Bid / ask / mid1.3¢ / 1.5¢ / 1.4¢

Spread0.2¢ (14.3%)

Change 24h-0.05pt

Change 7d-0.45pt

Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$12,292

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,817 / $5,281

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score52.5 / 100

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.28

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d0.02pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 37d 2h.

Time to resolve37d 2h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%