← Explore · Market 2034729
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
4.0% implied · bid 3.9¢ · ask 4.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.9%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability3.9%
Bid / ask / mid3.9¢ / 4.0¢ / 4.0¢
Spread0.1¢ (2.5%)
Change 24h-0.20pt
Change 7d+0.35pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 59/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$41,903
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,659 / $13,207
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score58.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.60
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.08pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 81d 21h.
Time to resolve81d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%