← Explore · Market 2054223

Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

87.0% implied · bid 86.0¢ · ask 88.0¢

The market prices this at 86.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability86.0%

Bid / ask / mid86.0¢ / 88.0¢ / 87.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (2.3%)

Change 24h-0.50pt

Change 7d-1.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 66% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$140

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$688 / $3,232

Imbalance66% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score42.0 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.2σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-3.21

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.27pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 234d 22h.

Time to resolve234d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%