← Explore · Market 2054235

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

96.3% implied · bid 95.2¢ · ask 97.3¢

The market prices this at 96.9%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.1¢ spread.

Implied probability96.9%

Bid / ask / mid95.2¢ / 97.3¢ / 96.3¢

Spread2.1¢ (2.2%)

Change 24h+0.50pt

Change 7d+1.20pt

Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 68% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$27

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$970 / $6,855

Imbalance68% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score43.4 / 100

RSI 56 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.2σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean3.18

RSI (14, hourly)55.7

Realized vol 7d0.30pt

Change 1h+0.05pt

Resolves in 234d 22h.

Time to resolve234d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%