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Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

85.5% implied · bid 82.0¢ · ask 89.0¢

The market prices this at 81.0%, up 7.5pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.

Implied probability81.0%

Bid / ask / mid82.0¢ / 89.0¢ / 85.5¢

Spread7.0¢ (8.2%)

Change 24h+7.50pt

Change 7d-0.50pt

Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 54% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$126

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$147 / $590

Imbalance54% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score15.4 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.25

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.69pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 234d 22h.

Time to resolve234d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%