← Explore · Market 2055084
Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
57.0% implied · bid 35.0¢ · ask 79.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 67.0%, up 5.0pt over 24h, on a 44.0¢ spread.
Implied probability67.0%
Bid / ask / mid35.0¢ / 79.0¢ / 57.0¢
Spread44.0¢ (77.2%)
Change 24h+5.00pt
Change 7d+6.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$15
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 64 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 5.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean5.40
RSI (14, hourly)63.9
Realized vol 7d1.91pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 286d 21h.
Time to resolve286d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%