← Explore · Market 2055085
Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
87.0% implied · bid 86.0¢ · ask 88.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 82.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability82.0%
Bid / ask / mid86.0¢ / 88.0¢ / 87.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.3%)
Change 24h+2.50pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 86% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$209
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$168 / $421
Imbalance86% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.60
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.96pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 286d 21h.
Time to resolve286d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%