← Explore · Market 2055089
Will Dominique de Villepin announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?
46.5% implied · bid 22.0¢ · ask 71.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 51.0%, up 3.5pt over 24h, on a 49.0¢ spread.
Implied probability51.0%
Bid / ask / mid22.0¢ / 71.0¢ / 46.5¢
Spread49.0¢ (105.4%)
Change 24h+3.50pt
Change 7d-3.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.48
RSI (14, hourly)53.3
Realized vol 7d6.15pt
Change 1h+4.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 286d 21h.
Time to resolve286d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%