← Explore · Market 2061468
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?
94.5% implied · bid 94.0¢ · ask 95.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 94.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability94.0%
Bid / ask / mid94.0¢ / 95.0¢ / 94.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h+2.50pt
Change 7d+74.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 78% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$1,889
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,184 / $10,762
Imbalance78% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score52.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 80 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.42
RSI (14, hourly)80.0
Realized vol 7d4.09pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 286d 21h.
Time to resolve286d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%