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Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

89.0% implied · bid 88.0¢ · ask 90.0¢

The market prices this at 94.0%, down 3.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability94.0%

Bid / ask / mid88.0¢ / 90.0¢ / 89.0¢

Spread2.0¢ (2.2%)

Change 24h-3.50pt

Change 7d+3.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 84% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$0

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$563 / $824

Imbalance84% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score40.7 / 100

RSI 23 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.85

RSI (14, hourly)23.1

Realized vol 7d0.78pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 234d 22h.

Time to resolve234d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%