← Explore · Market 2088352
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
91.5% implied · bid 91.0¢ · ask 92.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 91.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability91.0%
Bid / ask / mid91.0¢ / 92.0¢ / 91.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 73/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 40% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,360
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$29,645 / $26,722
Imbalance40% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score73.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.89
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.26pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 21h.
Time to resolve85d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%