← Explore · Market 2088353
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
4.5% implied · bid 4.0¢ · ask 4.9¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.0%, up 1.3pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability4.0%
Bid / ask / mid4.0¢ / 4.9¢ / 4.5¢
Spread0.9¢ (20.2%)
Change 24h+1.35pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$251
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$134 / $158
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.26
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.40pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 21h.
Time to resolve85d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%