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← Explore · Market 2099580

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

98.2% implied · bid 98.0¢ · ask 98.3¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 98.2%, up 1.1pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.

Implied probability98.2%
Bid / ask / mid98.0¢ / 98.3¢ / 98.2¢
Spread0.3¢ (0.3%)
Change 24h+1.05pt
Change 7d+0.85pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 99/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 29% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$21,827
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$17,071 / $132,408
Imbalance29% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score98.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.02
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.20pt
Change 1h+0.05pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 173d 22h.

Time to resolve173d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth