← Explore · Market 2109512
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
33.0% implied · bid 31.0¢ · ask 35.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 40.0%, down 7.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability40.0%
Bid / ask / mid31.0¢ / 35.0¢ / 33.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (12.1%)
Change 24h-7.50pt
Change 7d+2.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$361
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$78 / $32
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.74
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d1.44pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%