← Explore · Market 2109513
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
30.5% implied · bid 30.0¢ · ask 31.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 28.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability28.0%
Bid / ask / mid30.0¢ / 31.0¢ / 30.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.3%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$863
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$98 / $417
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.10
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d0.34pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%