← Explore · Market 2109515
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
11.5% implied · bid 11.0¢ · ask 12.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability11.0%
Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 11.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (8.7%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$178
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$134 / $248
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.43
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.12pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%