← Explore · Market 2110508

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026?

99.8% implied · bid 99.6¢ · ask 99.9¢

The market prices this at 99.8%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.

Implied probability99.8%

Bid / ask / mid99.6¢ / 99.9¢ / 99.8¢

Spread0.3¢ (0.3%)

Change 24h+0.05pt

Change 7d+1.45pt

Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 92% to the bid (buyers).

Volume 24h$1,392

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,079 / $2,239

Imbalance92% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score51.7 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.84

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.12pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 81d 21h.

Time to resolve81d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%